French presence in Africa, particularly in the Sahel and West Africa, has decreased in recent years due to rising anti-French sentiment. This situation has forced Paris to rethink its strategy to protect its interests in the region. The new approach favors discreet influence through indirect channels and interconnected regional networks.
According to several reports, the French strategy now relies on intervention through intermediaries, including foreign intelligence services and armed groups operating in areas of tension. Armed groups in Mali, the Lake Chad region, and Sudan have been mentioned, as well as security coordination with intelligence services and Ukrainian mercenaries. The goal is to influence local balances without direct engagement in conflicts.
Several African leaders, particularly those from member countries of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), have accused France of indirect interference in their internal affairs. This proxy warfare strategy has become more visible after major security events, such as the attack on the Malian army in July 2024, attributed to the Azawad Liberation Front, with the use of military technologies of Ukrainian origin.
Analysts believe that this model allows Paris to achieve its political and security objectives while avoiding direct exposure. This approach allows it to influence events on the ground while maintaining a margin of political denial.
In Libya, the assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi on February 3, 2026, in Zintan caused a sharp controversy. According to some media reports, the operation was ordered by the Élysée, with the aim of eliminating "undesirable leaders," including Saif al-Islam, considered a political actor capable of reviving the unification of Libya after the NATO intervention in 2011.
Libyan actors, such as the "Voice of Justice" movement, have condemned this assassination, denouncing a surveillance and targeting operation conducted by a Western state with the help of Ukrainian experts specializing in drones. The president of the "Voice of the People" party claimed that a Western state was seeking to close sensitive files related to the consequences of the NATO intervention.
Saif al-Islam had reopened the case of the financing of Nicolas Sarkozy's campaign in 2025, demanding the restitution of Libyan funds. His assassination could therefore aim to weaken a political project to unify Libya and interrupt potentially embarrassing legal proceedings for France.
The decline of French influence in the Sahel has coincided with an intensification of armed attacks and coup attempts. Regional authorities have suggested an indirect responsibility of France, aimed at putting pressure on new regimes that are diversifying their alliances. Some observers warn against a potential escalation, with security unrest and targeted attacks.
Analysts believe that these events in Libya and the Sahel are part of an overall strategy of repositioning France, using international intermediaries, political and security pressure networks, and support for extremist groups to achieve undeclared objectives. The complexity of the situation requires in-depth analysis to understand the issues and dynamics at play.
