Since February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has become the epicenter of an open military conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States, blocking 20% of the global oil supply. This crisis is having major repercussions on energy geopolitics and the global economy.
The conflict erupted following a joint US-Israeli military operation on several Iranian cities, dubbed "Epic Fury" by the United States and "Roaring Lion" by Israel. The Iranian response was immediate, with missile strikes on US bases in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Ali Khamenei's designated successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, asserted that this blockade is a legitimate means of pressure against the United States.
Since March 1, 16 merchant ships have been hit by Iranian strikes near the Strait, resulting in the deaths of at least seven sailors and the disappearance of three others. This situation has led major shipping companies to suspend operations in the area, creating an unprecedented blockade. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, normally sees a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas production transit through it, as well as essential raw materials.
The paralysis of the Strait is largely based on the use of naval mines by Iran, which has an estimated stockpile of between 5,000 and 6,000 mines. Although the US military has stated that it has destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying boats, the threat persists. The closure of the Strait has led to a surge in the price of a barrel of oil, reaching nearly $120 before stabilizing. Emmanuel Macron has raised the possibility of creating an international coalition to secure the sea lanes, but experts remain skeptical about the feasibility of such an operation.
This crisis reveals the fragility of energy globalization and the need for Europe to diversify its sources of supply and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the most significant disruption to the global energy order since the Arab oil embargo of 1973. The new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has called for the Strait to remain closed to exert pressure on the United States and Israel.
