Geopolitical tremors in the Middle East could bring a breath of fresh air to Cameroon's public finances. According to an analysis by the Ministry of Finance, a sustained surge in oil barrel prices could boost state revenues by around 180 billion FCFA in 2026.
This surplus, compared to the initial forecasts of the finance law, would mainly come from royalties paid by the Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH) and the tax on oil companies. A potential windfall, as oil markets are in turmoil in the face of tensions involving Iran. In early March 2026, Brent crossed the 90 dollar mark, after fluctuating around 70 dollars a few days earlier.
"If oil prices average $100 throughout 2026, the surplus on oil revenues would be in the order of 180 billion," the Ministry of Finance document states. Reason for optimism? Not so fast. While rising prices boost Cameroon's crude oil export revenues, they also increase the country's energy bill, as it imports refined products.
"The amount of subsidies for fuel prices at the pump would increase, but at a slower rate than oil revenues," the ministry said. In other words, the state could gain on one side what it risks losing on the other. Especially as the risk of inflation looms. "When energy and maritime transport prices rise, costs spread throughout the value chain," the report warns, highlighting the risk of higher import prices and, as a result, higher domestic prices.
Recent figures illustrate this ambivalence. After soaring in 2021 and 2022, hydrocarbon exports fell back to 1,056 billion FCFA in 2025. Oil royalties followed the same trend, falling from 774.5 billion FCFA in 2022 to 530 billion in 2024. At the same time, the bill for fuel imports peaked at 1,128 billion FCFA in 2023.
Faced with this volatility, the Ministry of Finance insists on the need to transform this "cyclical rent into a real budgetary advantage, without allowing the external shock to spread to the rest of the economy". A major challenge for Cameroon, which is structurally exposed to the vagaries of the oil market.
