The International Monetary Fund (IMF) foresees a more robust growth outlook for Cameroon in the medium term, provided the country manages to diversify its economy, particularly through the expansion of the mining sector, and implements the announced reforms.
According to the IMF's end-of-mission report under Article IV for 2026, Cameroon's GDP is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, then gradually to 4.6% by 2031. This improvement would be supported by increased mining activity, greater public investment, and the gradual reduction of bottlenecks, particularly in the energy sector.
The IMF emphasizes that oil can no longer be the sole driver of Cameroonian growth. The institution had already stressed, during the eighth review of the program in July 2025, the need to increase non-oil revenues, reduce vulnerabilities in the financial sector, and correct weaknesses in governance, public management, and the fight against corruption.
Cameroon's economic diversification is materializing with the start of iron ore exploitation at Grand Zambi in early 2025 and the first exports expected in the second half of the year. The industrial project at Minim-Martap, focused on bauxite mining, was officially launched on March 22, 2026. These projects mark a transition towards growth that is less dependent on oil. The Minister of Mines announced that several containers of enriched ore from Grand Zambi were exported for analysis starting January 17, 2026.
The IMF also anticipates that the economic recovery in 2026 will be supported by an increase in public investment. The African Development Bank has approved a loan of €309.93 million to finance the first phase of the Program for the Opening Up and Connectivity of Cross-Border Economic Zones in the Eastern Region.
The IMF stresses that the development of the mining sector does not depend solely on the start-up of new projects. It is essential to put in place adequate infrastructure, including roads, railways, port facilities, and a reliable energy supply. The institution also notes a weakening of Cameroon's external position in 2025, with a current account deficit expected at 3.9% of GDP, due to the decline in oil exports.
Achieving these goals is conditional on the continuation of reforms, including fiscal consolidation, strengthening expenditure control, improving the mobilization of non-oil revenues, and operationalizing the single Treasury account. The IMF also emphasizes improving access to finance, planning and executing public investments, and implementing the recommendations from the 2023 governance assessment.
Cameroon can hope to reduce its dependence on oil through mining, energy, and public investment, but this trajectory will depend on the realization of mining projects and the effective implementation of reforms.
