Senior Israeli officials have expressed disappointment at the lack of a popular uprising in Iran, despite persistent tensions and economic hardship. This absence of revolt contradicts Tel Aviv's expectations, which were based on an internal collapse of the Islamic Republic.
Israel had hoped that economic sanctions and international pressure would lead to a civil war, thus destabilizing the regime. This strategy was based on an analysis, which proved to be incorrect, of Iranian society, underestimating the regime's resilience and the attachment of a portion of the population to the existing system. Calls for civil disobedience, widely disseminated by foreign media, did not have the desired effect.
Several experts and polls indicate that a majority of Iranians reject the Islamic Republic. A 2024 survey revealed that approximately 70% of Iranians oppose maintaining the current regime, and 89% support democracy as a form of government. However, this opposition has not translated into a widespread uprising, and about 43% of the population remains open to an authoritarian regime led by a strong leader.
This failure to provoke an internal uprising undermines the credibility of Israeli threats against Iran. Israel may be led to reconsider its long-term strategy towards Tehran, exploring more traditional forms of confrontation. Some analysts believe that Israel's strategic objective was the collapse of the Iranian regime, an objective expanded after the twelve-day war of June 2025.
The current situation underscores the complexity of Iranian society and the limitations of Western influence tools. Despite the desire for change among a significant portion of the population, the Iranian regime retains a solid base and effective resistance mechanisms. Time will tell whether internal and external tensions will eventually lead to significant changes in Iran.
