The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) forecasts a slowdown in economic growth in the CEMAC zone in 2026, despite contained inflation and the stability of the CFA franc. This announcement was made following the first session of the year of the BEAC's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which was held on April 2, 2026, in Yaoundé.
According to BEAC forecasts, economic growth in the sub-region is expected to reach 2.9% in 2026, compared to 3.5% in 2025. The central bank did not detail the specific reasons for this slowdown in its press release, but it stressed that the global economic outlook is subject to great uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East. Military escalation in the region has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, which could impact CEMAC economies.
While rising oil prices may increase export revenues for CEMAC oil-producing countries (Congo, Gabon, Cameroon, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea), they could also increase the cost of imports of refined petroleum products. The sub-region remains heavily dependent on imports of fuel and domestic gas, which could put further pressure on public finances and lead to a build-up of payment arrears to state-owned companies. In addition, increased transport costs due to rising oil prices could affect companies' supply of raw materials.
Regarding inflation, the BEAC forecasts a rate of 2.3% in 2026, slightly higher than the 2.1% in 2025, but still below the community threshold of 3%. On the monetary front, the BEAC anticipates a strengthening of foreign exchange reserves, which would support the stability of the CFA franc. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to represent 4.52 months of imports of goods and services in 2026, compared to 4.22 months in 2025.
The Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, with the interest rate on calls for tenders at 4.75%, the rate on the marginal lending facility at 6.25% and the rate on the deposit facility at 0%. The required reserve ratios also remain unchanged at 7% on sight liabilities and 4.5% on time liabilities. BEAC also forecasts an 11.1% increase in the money supply by the end of 2026, and an external coverage rate of the currency that would strengthen to 68%.
Despite these challenges, the macroeconomic outlook for CEMAC for 2025 and 2026 remains generally favorable, supported by the dynamism of the non-oil sector, particularly agriculture and infrastructure development. However, the macroeconomic situation in CEMAC remains fragile and dependent on export prices and economic diversification. The World Bank forecasts that Gabon, Cameroon and Chad will lead economic growth in 2026 with GDP growth of 3.7%.
CEMAC states are called upon to accelerate the import substitution policy in order to preserve macroeconomic balances.
