As Yaoundé prepares to host the 14th conference of ministers from member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Cameroon is being urged to reassess its economic development strategies, particularly regarding import substitution.
The National Development Strategy (SND30) is based on a model combining import substitution and export promotion, leveraging the comparative advantages of the Cameroonian economy. This approach aims to correct Cameroon's heavy reliance on imports, which leads to a quasi-structural trade deficit. Import substitution is thus seen as an essential lever for transforming the Cameroonian economy, a central pillar of SND30.
However, this strategy raises questions about its conceptual, historical, and operational relevance. Import substitution, theorized as early as the 19th century by Friedrich List with the concept of "educational protectionism," inspired economists such as Samir Amin, a champion of industrialization through import substitution (ISI) in Third World countries. Amin advocated a self-centered development, focused on economic sovereignty and local production, to counter the domination of rich countries.
Historically, ISI policies implemented in the 1960s and 1970s often failed. In Cameroon, the Ahidjo era saw the creation of public companies such as SOCAME, CERICAM, and CELLUCAM, funded by revenues from cocoa, coffee, and oil. The economic crisis of the 1980s revealed the limitations of this model, with loss-making public companies and high levels of debt. The Brazilian experience, often cited, is difficult to transpose to the Cameroonian context due to the size of the Brazilian domestic market.
Import substitution involves protectionist measures such as high tariffs, quotas, and state subsidies. However, these practices are in contradiction with WTO rules, which advocate open borders and the removal of barriers to trade. The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) signed in 2014 between Cameroon and the European Union, which came into force in 2016, illustrates this contradiction. The EPA provides for a gradual dismantling of tariffs on European products, thus opening the Cameroonian market to European manufactured goods, potentially at the expense of local industry. Some even see the EPA as a form of aid to recolonization.
In a global context marked by economic warfare, the reconfiguration of international trade and increased competitiveness, Cameroon must aim to strengthen its competitiveness and promote its exports rather than locking itself into a narrow domestic market. The relative failure of the Integrated Agro-pastoral and Fisheries Import Substitution Plan (PIISAH), with a budget of 1371 billion FCFA, illustrates the limits of import substitution. Studies have shown the difficulties in substituting imported wheat with local flours made from cassava, plantain, and sweet potato.
Faced with these challenges, a new strategic direction is needed for Cameroon: strengthening competitiveness and promoting exports.
